Monday, December 10, 2012

The Fermi Paradox: "Where are they?"

One day in 1950, the physicist Enrico Fermi asked his colleagues during lunch this now famous question: "Where are they?" meaning where are all the aliens, if there's so many presumably habitable planets probable in the rest of the galaxy. And that lunchtime conversation led to what's now known as the Fermi Paradox.

The world's eggheads have picked it up and ran with it, and made what I have to believe were tongue-in-cheek formulae for 'solving' the problem, even though there's no possible way to verify half the unknowns in their calculations. Maybe this is how the brains of the world amuse themselves, who knows?

But I like impossible problems and unanswerable questions, so sit back and give me a whack at this one. We haven't seen verifiable evidence of aliens from outer space, or E.T.s, or however you'd care to describe them - and for very good reasons. If they're capable of interstellar travel, then they're also smart enough to have already detected our radio and television broadcasts flying outwards into space and in effect forming a large 'bubble' around us. Even though those signals get weaker with increased distance, they would act as an 'early warning' for any approaching alien spacecraft. Once they tuned in and cleared up the signals, and discovered that we've got a collective intelligence not much above an unwashed turnip, and that we'd rather fight than eat, and that we're too busy trashing this planet to spare the resources to go to another, then they'd wisely decide to avoid us for the sake of their own sanity.

On a more serious level, the main problems with interstellar travel are rather obvious: the distances are enormous, the resources required are almost unimaginable, the expense would be prohibitive to say the least, and the time involved would be far beyond anyone's lifetime.

I have a tattered paperback book with a lot of loose pages, kept together by tying it closed with string when not in use, titled Beyond The Moon, by the Italian astronomer Paolo Maffei, in which he takes us on an imaginary space flight from here beyond the moon to the outer limits of the observable universe. It's a fascinating 377 pages and a wonderful read, if you can find a copy, which isn't likely, because this is from 1980. A lot of it is still very relevant however, because the universe is still much like it was back then, even if we're not. In the preceding paragraph I mentioned the time involved in traveling through space. Here's what Paolo Maffei says about traveling from here to the nearest other star system, Alpha Centauri - "Traveling with the average speed of the spacecraft that now (1970s) go to the moon and back, the voyage would take 500,000 years."

How could we make something which could last that long and still keep operating normally, and who or what would operate it, and how would anyone know if it ever arrived safely? Life on this planet might be extinct long before it arrived at its destination, if it ever did. This is just one of many reasons why most intelligent life in the galaxy might wisely decide to stay home and hope others do the same.

1 comment:

  1. now famous question: "Where are they?"

    Hi Ray,Do you remember a fellow named ED RANTA a operator at Lower Sturgeon? He had a locker full of alien paperback books. I recall one story.
    Aliens and Earthlings decided to play a home and home football game. The first one on the Alien Planet. The Earth players handled the much smaller Alien players;but at the end of the game it was close. Earth won on a field goal in the last minnute.
    A big banquet followed and the Earth players commented on the good roast meat they were served. However they wondered .Where is the Alien Coach?
    The Alien players advised in their culture
    when their team lost the coach became the main course.They were looking forward to their return game on Earth. Do I hear a lot of choking going on out there????

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